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What would I have to believe for this to be true?

Evaluating a claim, a strategy, or an argument you can't immediately fault.

Longreasoningcritiqueassumptions
Take the claim below and work backwards from it.

1. List the assumptions that must hold for this claim to be true. Include the hidden ones, the assumptions so obvious to the claimant that they were never stated.
2. For each assumption, rate it: clearly true, probably true, contested, or unlikely.
3. Identify the load-bearing assumption: the one that, if false, makes the whole thing collapse.
4. Tell me what evidence would settle that one, and whether it is obtainable.
5. Steelman the claim: state the strongest version of it, granting the most defensible assumptions.
6. Then give your own view on whether it holds, and how confident you are.

Claim:

Making it yours

  • Paste your own material where the prompt asks for it. Everything above that line is instruction, not content.
  • Delete any rule that does not apply to you. A shorter prompt that fits beats a thorough one that does not.
  • If the answer comes back vague, add a line saying what you do not want. Constraints work better than encouragement.

Scrutinising ideas. Where a concept stops working, what people get wrong, and whether a claim holds up.

Related prompts

Distinguish two things I keep confusingTwo terms you nod along to but could not reliably tell apart.What do people usually get wrong about this?Before you teach something, or before you assume your own version is right.Summarise this paper and tell me if it holds upA research paper or long article you need the substance of, plus a sanity check.Tell these two apartTwo terms you nod along to and could not reliably distinguish.Where does this stop working?An idea you've started applying everywhere.Explain this at three levels of depthFirst contact with a concept, when you don't yet know how deep you need to go.

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