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Find the counter-evidence

When the research so far has all pointed the same way and that makes you nervous.

I have reached a conclusion and everything I have read supports it. Work against me.

1. What would evidence against this conclusion look like? Describe the finding, study, or data that would undermine it, before searching for whether it exists.
2. Who disagrees with this position, and what is their actual argument? Not a caricature of it.
3. Where would disconfirming evidence live that I am unlikely to have looked: practitioner accounts, failed cases, non-English sources, older literature, unpublished negative results?
4. Is my sample of sources biased by how I searched? Say what my search terms would systematically have missed.
5. Conclude: is my confidence justified, and if not, what should it drop to?

My conclusion:


What I have read:

Making it yours

  • Paste your own material where the prompt asks for it. Everything above that line is instruction, not content.
  • Delete any rule that does not apply to you. A shorter prompt that fits beats a thorough one that does not.
  • If the answer comes back vague, add a line saying what you do not want. Constraints work better than encouragement.

Pressure-testing a conclusion. Counter-evidence, gaps, and the strongest objection, found before someone else finds it for you.

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