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Is this statistic plausible?

A number that would be remarkable if true, which is exactly why it is being quoted.

Longstatisticsverificationnumbers
Pressure-test the statistic below before I repeat it.

1. Restate it precisely: what is being measured, of what population, over what period, in what units.
2. Work out an order-of-magnitude estimate from first principles and show the arithmetic. Does the claimed figure survive?
3. What denominator would make this number large, and what denominator would make it small? Statistics like this usually pick one.
4. Is it a relative change presented without the absolute base?
5. What is the most likely origin: a real measurement, a projection, a survey of self-reports, or a number someone once estimated that has since been repeated as fact?
6. Verdict: plausible, suspicious, or almost certainly wrong, with your reasoning. Do not invent a source for it.

The statistic:

Making it yours

  • Paste your own material where the prompt asks for it. Everything above that line is instruction, not content.
  • Delete any rule that does not apply to you. A shorter prompt that fits beats a thorough one that does not.
  • If the answer comes back vague, add a line saying what you do not want. Constraints work better than encouragement.

Testing a claim. Statistics, causal stories, methodology, and tracing a repeated claim back to where it started.

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