Research & comparison21 categories
Is this statistic plausible?
A number that would be remarkable if true, which is exactly why it is being quoted.
Pressure-test the statistic below before I repeat it. 1. Restate it precisely: what is being measured, of what population, over what period, in what units. 2. Work out an order-of-magnitude estimate from first principles and show the arithmetic. Does the claimed figure survive? 3. What denominator would make this number large, and what denominator would make it small? Statistics like this usually pick one. 4. Is it a relative change presented without the absolute base? 5. What is the most likely origin: a real measurement, a projection, a survey of self-reports, or a number someone once estimated that has since been repeated as fact? 6. Verdict: plausible, suspicious, or almost certainly wrong, with your reasoning. Do not invent a source for it. The statistic:
Making it yours
- Paste your own material where the prompt asks for it. Everything above that line is instruction, not content.
- Delete any rule that does not apply to you. A shorter prompt that fits beats a thorough one that does not.
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Testing a claim. Statistics, causal stories, methodology, and tracing a repeated claim back to where it started.
Related prompts
Extract the claims and rate the evidenceBefore you cite something persuasive back to your team.Is this causation or just correlation?Any claim of the form "X leads to Y" that someone wants to act on.Find the methodology weaknessesA study, survey, or internal analysis whose conclusion you are about to rely on.Sanity-check a market sizeA TAM slide, a forecast, or any big number in a deck you have to defend.Trace this claim back to its originA "studies show" claim that everyone repeats and nobody links.Is this number plausible?A statistic in a deck or an article that you cannot verify.
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