Thinking & decisions21 categories
Calibrate my confidence
When you notice you have said "definitely" about something you have not checked.
Longcalibrationuncertainty
Check whether my confidence matches my evidence. 1. Pull out each claim I have made and the confidence I expressed, whether stated as a number or implied by words like "obviously" or "probably". 2. For each, what does the evidence I actually have justify? Give a rough probability and say whether I am over- or under-confident. 3. Point out where I am confident because a claim is familiar rather than because it is verified. This is the most common cause of overconfidence. 4. Note anywhere I am hedging on something I genuinely do know, which is its own error. 5. Rewrite my strongest claims at the confidence the evidence supports. Be blunt. Softening this defeats the purpose. What I said:
Making it yours
- Paste your own material where the prompt asks for it. Everything above that line is instruction, not content.
- Delete any rule that does not apply to you. A shorter prompt that fits beats a thorough one that does not.
- If the answer comes back vague, add a line saying what you do not want. Constraints work better than encouragement.
Confidence and hindsight. Calibrating how firmly to hold a view, recording the call, and judging it later on its merits.
Related prompts
Separate the decision from the outcomeAfter something worked out, or did not, and you want to know whether to repeat it.What would change my mind?Committing to a position, before the evidence starts arriving.Write a decision recordRight after a call is made, while the reasoning is still in your head.Retrospective on a past decisionMonths later, when you can finally see how a decision actually played out.How confident should I be?A belief you are about to act on.Write this decision downRecording a call so the reasoning survives the next six months.
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