Thinking & decisions21 categories
How confident should I be?
A belief you are about to act on.
Mediumcalibrationbeliefs
Here is something I believe. Tell me how confident I should be in it, as a rough percentage, and what that number rests on. Then name the one piece of evidence that would move it furthest in either direction. Do not agree with me to be agreeable. Belief:
Making it yours
- Paste your own material where the prompt asks for it. Everything above that line is instruction, not content.
- Delete any rule that does not apply to you. A shorter prompt that fits beats a thorough one that does not.
- If the answer comes back vague, add a line saying what you do not want. Constraints work better than encouragement.
Confidence and hindsight. Calibrating how firmly to hold a view, recording the call, and judging it later on its merits.
Related prompts
Separate the decision from the outcomeAfter something worked out, or did not, and you want to know whether to repeat it.What would change my mind?Committing to a position, before the evidence starts arriving.Calibrate my confidenceWhen you notice you have said "definitely" about something you have not checked.Write a decision recordRight after a call is made, while the reasoning is still in your head.Retrospective on a past decisionMonths later, when you can finally see how a decision actually played out.Write this decision downRecording a call so the reasoning survives the next six months.
Keep this one
Phrasery saves prompts with a right-click and puts them back the same way. Add this to your own library in one click.
Add to your browser — free