Thinking & decisions21 categories
Decide with information I do not have
When the missing information may never arrive and the decision still has to be made.
I am missing information. Help me decide without it. 1. List what I do not know, and split it: knowable with effort, knowable only with time, and unknowable in principle. 2. For the knowable ones, say what each would cost to find out and whether it would actually change the decision. Most would not, and that is the point. 3. For the unknowable ones, which option is most robust across the plausible range of values? I want the choice that is acceptable under most outcomes, not the one that is best under the most likely one. 4. What is my exposure if the worst plausible case is true? Can I cap it? 5. Recommend an option and say what you would watch for to know early that it is going wrong. The decision and what I do not know:
Making it yours
- Paste your own material where the prompt asks for it. Everything above that line is instruction, not content.
- Delete any rule that does not apply to you. A shorter prompt that fits beats a thorough one that does not.
- If the answer comes back vague, add a line saying what you do not want. Constraints work better than encouragement.
Deciding under pressure. Making the call when time is short, information is missing, or your capacity is already full.
Related prompts
What am I giving up by doing this?Saying yes to something when your capacity is already full.Decide well under time pressureA real deadline, and not enough time for the analysis you would prefer.Break this into smaller betsA big commitment that could be a sequence of cheaper ones.Pick one of these twoTwo options, roughly equal, and a decision that is overdue.Run a pre-mortem on this planBefore committing to a plan that people are already enthusiastic about.Argue hard against the option I pickedWhen you have already chosen and want the case against before you announce it.
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