Break this into smaller bets

A big commitment that could be a sequence of cheaper ones.

This looks like one large decision. Break it into a sequence of smaller ones.

1. What is the cheapest thing I could do that generates real information about whether this works? Real means it could come back negative.
2. Sequence the commitment: what can I defer until after that first step, and what genuinely has to be decided now?
3. For each stage, define the go and no-go condition in advance, with a number or an observable event rather than a feeling.
4. What is the cost of staging it this way: lost speed, extra overhead, a worse deal? Say whether that cost is worth paying here.
5. If this genuinely cannot be staged and has to be one commitment, say so rather than inventing artificial phases.

The commitment:

Deciding under pressure. Making the call when time is short, information is missing, or your capacity is already full.