Thinking & decisions21 categories
What happens after the thing I want happens?
Any change where the first-order effect is obvious and everyone stopped thinking there.
Longconsequencessystems
Trace the consequences of this decision past the first step. 1. **First order**: the immediate, intended effect. One line, we both already know it. 2. **Second order**: how do people respond to that effect? Who changes their behaviour, and in whose interest? 3. **Third order**: what does that response then cause, including effects that undo the original benefit? 4. **Incentives**: what does this reward, and what will people optimise for once they notice? Assume they are smart and self-interested. 5. **Irreversibility**: which of these effects would be hard to unwind if we changed our minds in a year? Give me the one second- or third-order effect you think is most underrated here, and say why it is missed. The decision:
Making it yours
- Paste your own material where the prompt asks for it. Everything above that line is instruction, not content.
- Delete any rule that does not apply to you. A shorter prompt that fits beats a thorough one that does not.
- If the answer comes back vague, add a line saying what you do not want. Constraints work better than encouragement.
Stress-testing a plan. Pre-mortems, arguing the other side, and following the consequences past the first order.
Related prompts
Run a pre-mortem on this planBefore committing to a plan that people are already enthusiastic about.Argue hard against the option I pickedWhen you have already chosen and want the case against before you announce it.Map who this decision lands onA change that will affect people who are not in the room when it is made.Argue the other sideWhen you have already decided and want the decision tested.What is the worst case?Anxiety about a decision you have not actually sized.What if I do nothing?Before acting because acting feels better than waiting.
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