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Find the riskiest assumption

Before committing a quarter to a plan that rests on something untested.

Longriskassumptionsdiscovery
Find the assumptions this plan depends on, and tell me which one to test first.

1. List every assumption, sorted into: desirability (people want this), viability (it makes sense for us), feasibility (we can build it), and usability (people can work out how).
2. For each, rate how confident we actually are and what that confidence rests on. Distinguish evidence from consensus. A room agreeing is not evidence.
3. Identify the **riskiest assumption**: the one that is both least supported and most fatal if wrong. Pick one, do not hedge.
4. Design the cheapest test that would genuinely move our confidence, including what result would make us stop.
5. Name any assumption that cannot be tested before building, and what we should do about that.

The plan:

Making it yours

  • Paste your own material where the prompt asks for it. Everything above that line is instruction, not content.
  • Delete any rule that does not apply to you. A shorter prompt that fits beats a thorough one that does not.
  • If the answer comes back vague, add a line saying what you do not want. Constraints work better than encouragement.

Discovery and evidence. Checking the idea before you commit: research, feedback, competitors, risky assumptions, success metrics.

Related prompts

Define success metrics for this featureBefore you build, so you're not inventing a metric afterwards to look good.Design user interview questionsYou have five research calls booked and one chance to not lead the witness.Synthesise raw feedback into themesA pile of interview notes, survey answers or reviews and no pattern yet.Tear down a competitor's productUnderstanding a rival properly, beyond "they have more features than us".Turn support tickets into product insightSupport volume is telling you something and nobody has read it as a whole.Riskiest assumption hereA plan that depends on something nobody has checked.

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